Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The takeaway remains the same: prices are rising year-over-year, but at an increasingly slow rate. Case Shiller--the more volatile index--is at the lowest pace in more than 2 years while the broader FHFA index is the lowest since 2012 in year-over-year terms. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) June: −0.2%; May was revised to −0.1% from unchanged YoY: +2.9% from June 2024 to June 2025 All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.7% in the Mountain division to +6.7% in the Middle Atlantic. Case-Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +1.9% in June, down from +2.3% in May MoM (non seasonally adjusted): +0.4% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.3% The 20-City Composite posted a −0.3% MoM decline (SA) and a +2.1% YoY gain. The 10-City Composite was slightly firmer at −0.1% MoM and +2.6% YoY. Seasonally Adjusted Comparison: Index MoM (SA) YoY FHFA HPI −0.2% +2.9% Case-Shiller −0.3% +1.9% Non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller readings still show the usual spring/summer uptick, but once adjusted for seasonality the underlying trend is negative. FHFA data also points to weakening, with its second consecutive month of declines.
The latest New Home Sales report showed little change in July, with sales holding very close to June’s pace. The seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate came in at 652,000. This marks a -0.6% dip from June’s revised 656,000, and leaves sales -8.2% lower than July 2024’s 710,000 level. For all practical purposes, the pace of sales continues to run sideways, reflecting the same stable range seen over the past 2+ years despite periodic swings. Regional Breakdown (Sales, July 2025) South: -3.5% MoM Midwest: -6.6% MoM Northeast: unchanged MoM West: +11.7% MoM Market Inventory & Pricing Homes for sale: 499,000 units (-0.6% from June; +7.3% YoY) Months’ supply: 9.2 months (flat MoM; +16.5% YoY) Median sales price: $403,800 (-0.8% MoM; -5.9% YoY) Average sales price: $487,300 (-3.6% MoM; -5.0% YoY) Big Picture Takeaway July’s new home sales data reinforces the recent pattern: demand is steady at best, but not accelerating. Inventory remains elevated, keeping months’ supply near multi-year highs. While prices have softened meaningfully versus last year (reflecting lower square footage more than actual price declines), elevated housing costs continue to limit the benefit to buyers.
Mortgage application activity was little changed last week, with only a fractional decline in overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 0.5% decrease in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 22, 2025. “Mortgage rates inched higher for the second straight week, with the 30-year fixed-rate up to 6.69 percent. While this was not a significant increase, it was enough to cause a pullback in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in over a month, up 2 percent, and the average loan size increased to its highest level in two months at $433,400.” The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remains 19% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index rose 2% on a seasonally adjusted basis and is running 25% ahead of last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications decreased to 45.3%. ARM share declined to 8.4%. FHA share held steady at 19.1%, while VA share slipped to 13.3%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.69% (from 6.68%) | Points: 0.60 (unchanged) 15yr Fixed: 6.03% (from 5.96%) | Points: 0.77 (up from 0.70) Jumbo 30yr: 6.67% (from 6.64%) | Points: 0.44 (down from 0.60) FHA: 6.35% (from 6.39%) | Points: 0.80 (up from 0.66) 5/1 ARM: 5.94% (from 6.01%) | Points: 0.68 (up from 0.63)
After sliding back in June, existing-home sales picked up in July. The latest update, released August 21, shows a modest rebound. Sales rose 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million are now 0.8% higher than a year ago. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart puts things in the most accurate perspective for the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years now. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that slightly better affordability and stronger wage growth are giving sales a lift, with buyers also benefiting from more choices in the market. He added that many areas are seeing near-flat price growth, with some regions experiencing outright price declines. Even so, homeowners remain in a strong position, with a cumulative 49% increase in typical home values since mid-2019. Distressed sales remain at historic lows, and inventory has climbed to its highest level since May 2020, offering buyers their best negotiating position in years. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, July 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 500k +8.7% $509,300 +0.8% Midwest 940k -1.1% $333,800 +3.9% South 1.805m +2.2% $367,400 -0.6% West 720k +1.4% $620,700 -1.4%
Mortgage application activity eased last week, but not in a statistically significant way. One might be inclined to note a very slight uptick in mortgage rates, but it's just as fair to say that rates held steady near longer-term lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 1.4% decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 15, 2025. “Mortgage rates increased slightly last week, with the 30-year fixed rate now at 6.68 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. VA applications fell 16%, while FHA refinance applications increased as FHA rates remained comparatively competitive. The Refinance Index decreased 3% week-over-week but remains about 23% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index was essentially flat (+0.1% seasonally adjusted) and is running about 23% ahead of last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications slipped to 46.1%. ARM share decreased to 8.6%. FHA share rose to 19.1%, while VA share declined to 13.4%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.68% (from 6.67%) | Points: 0.60 (down from 0.64) 15yr Fixed: 5.96% (from 5.93%) | Points: 0.70 (up from 0.63) Jumbo 30yr: 6.64% (from 6.70%) | Points: 0.60 (up from 0.56) FHA: 6.39% (from 6.40%) | Points: 0.66 (down from 0.77) 5/1 ARM: 6.01% (from 5.80%) | Points: 0.63 (down from 0.67)
Builder sentiment remains deeply subdued, as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo’s Housing Market Index (HMI) dipped one point in August to 32—its 16th straight month below the key 50 mark, and matching the lowest level since December 2022. Current sales conditions fell one point to 35 Sales expectations for the next 6 months remained steady at 43 Buyer traffic ticked up two points to 22 High mortgage rates (hovering around 6.58%), elevated new-home prices, and affordability pressures continue to weigh heavily on builder sentiment. In August, 37% of builders reported price cuts averaging 5%, while 66% offered sales incentives—the highest share seen in the post-COVID era. Affordability and demand remain persistent challenges, and despite slight improvements in buyer traffic, the overall outlook remains weak. Builders are leaning more on incentives than confidence to attract buyers. Regionally, confidence was weakest in the West, where affordability pressures are most acute and sentiment fell to its lowest since late 2022. The South also declined but continues to hover near the national average, while the Midwest held steadier and the Northeast was little changed. The divergence highlights that high-cost markets are bearing the brunt of buyer hesitation, while lower-cost regions remain relatively more resilient.
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a sharp rebound in July, with overall housing starts climbing 5.2% to a 1.428 million annual pace. Multifamily activity led the way, jumping to 470k—its highest level since May 2023—while single-family starts rose 2.8% to 939k. At the same time, permits slipped to 1.354 million, marking the lowest level in five years and underscoring a clear split between current activity and the forward-looking pipeline. The surge in multifamily starts fully reversed June’s decline and drove the bulk of July’s improvement in total starts. Single-family activity also improved modestly but remains well below earlier peaks. Completions were somewhat higher, but the more meaningful takeaway lies in the growing gap between permits and starts. Permits, by contrast, have been much more even-keeled—showing none of the sharp swings seen in housing starts. The steady decline in total permits—now at a five-year low—suggests builders remain cautious despite the recent rebound in activity. Single-family permits edged up 0.5% to 870k, but that gain was not enough to offset weakness in multifamily approvals. While July’s data highlights both the volatility of housing starts and the outsized role of multifamily construction, the deeper story is the widening divergence between starts and permits—pointing to persistent affordability issues, elevated mortgage rates, and lingering builder uncertainty about demand ahead.
Mortgage application activity surged last week as sharply lower mortgage rates boosted refinance demand and gave purchase applications a modest lift. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 10.9% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 8, 2025. “Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since January, leading to a solid rebound in application activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.67%, the third straight weekly drop, and that pulled refinance applications to their highest level since early 2023. Purchase activity also picked up, driven by gains in both conventional and government segments.” The Refinance Index jumped 23% week-over-week and is now roughly 55% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index rose 1.4% from the prior week and is running about 18% ahead of last year’s pace. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.67% (from 6.77%) | Points: 0.64 (up from 0.59) 15yr Fixed: 5.93% (from 6.03%) | Points: 0.63 (down from 0.66) Jumbo 30yr: 6.70% (from 6.65%) | Points: 0.56 (down from 0.59) FHA: 6.40% (from 6.47%) | Points: 0.77 (down from 0.81) 5/1 ARM: 5.80% (from 6.06%) | Points: 0.67 (up from 0.49)
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as falling rates boosted both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey for the week ending August 1, 2025, showed a 3.1% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index from the prior week. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77%, and applications for both purchase and refinance increased.” The Refinance Index rose 5% week-over-week and is 18% higher than the same week in 2024. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2% (unadjusted up 1%) and is also 18% above year-ago levels. The refinance share of total mortgage applications increased to 41.5% from 40.7% the previous week. It's now at its highest level since April. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share rose to 8.5%. FHA share edged down to 18.5% from 18.8%, while VA share increased to 13.3% from 12.2%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.77% (from 6.83%) | Points: 0.59 (from 0.60) 15yr Fixed: 6.03% (from 6.12%) | Points: 0.66 (from 0.64) Jumbo 30yr: 6.65% (from 6.74%) | Points: 0.59 (from 0.51) FHA: 6.47% (from 6.56%) | Points: 0.81 (from 0.83) 5/1 ARM: 6.06% (from 6.22%) | Points: 0.49 (from 0.51)
Mortgage application activity fell last week, reversing prior momentum and highlighting continued softness in both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 3.8% decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 25, 2025. “Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since May, with both purchase and refinance activity declining over the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30‑year fixed rate was little changed at 6.83%, but high enough to deter refinancing, pushing the refinance index lower for the third straight week. Purchase applications decreased by almost 6 percent, as conventional, FHA, and VA purchase loans declined despite slowing home‑price growth and rising inventory.” The Refinance Index dropped 1% week‑over‑week, though it remains about 30% above last year’s level. The Purchase Index posted a 6% weekly decrease, but still sits roughly 17% higher than the same week in 2024. Purchase applications declined across the board, while refinance activity also softened. The 30‑year fixed rate held steady at 6.83% after a slight drop from the week prior. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.83% (from 6.84%) | Points: 0.60 (down from 0.62) 15yr Fixed: 6.12% (down from 6.14%) | Points: 0.64 (down from 0.69) Jumbo 30yr: 6.74% (down from 6.75%) | Points: 0.51 (down from 0.70) FHA: 6.56% (up from 6.52%) | Points: 0.83 (up from 0.79) 5/1 ARM: 6.22% (up from 6.01%) | Points: 0.51 (up from 0.28)
